This weekend, we’ve got a card at Brazil. DraftKings has some decent contests out there with this Fight Night card, which is uncommon for these free ones. The principal tourney is an $8 entrance and pays $20k to 1st. That’s the principal GPP I will be pursuing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs too. However, this week DraftKings includes two contests for trips out to Vegas to see the McGregor vs Khabib battle. Struggles all, hotel, and flight paid for. The floor chairs contest is a $33 entrance along with the non-floor seats competition is only a $15 entrance. I am going to have to take a few shots in that too. Additionally, DraftKings just released a competition for UFC 299 that is a $10 entry with a gigantic $100,000 to 1st place. That’s unquestionably the greatest prize we have ever seen in DFS MMA, so let’s build a bankroll this weekend so we are able to shoot a few extra shots at the $100k. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Livia Renata Souza ($9,600)
Livia Souza is the strongest triumph on the card and I think she gets this battle ended early. This is where I am starting my money LUs this week. Only give me the -1100 favored who’s being fed an easy win , for my money games. I do like a great deal of the top favorites on this particular card, I simply would be the most shocked when Souza lost. I believe she is fine in both formats, but she will most likely be chalky in GPPs, therefore cash games would be the best place to get your Souza investment this week. Simply take this triumph, and then find 3 others and you need to be good in money games.
GPP play of the week — Charles Oliveira ($9,400)
I’m a large Charles”Can Bronx” Oliveira fan, and he’s a few of my favorites submissions in UFC history. I think we could see another amazing one here. This fight seems simple to call. Do Bronx will start looking for the early takedown and if he could get it then he probably receives a 1st round sub. If this happens he should lock up a solid 100 points and I am pretty certain in that being the outcome of this fight, so that is why he is my GPP play of this week. He is also my GPP play of the week, rather than my Money play of the week for a reason. If he can not get the takedown(s) early, then he’ll likely quit and get completed himself with strikes. I really don’t like that risk of a low floor because of my cash LU, so I favor Souza there. But in GPPs I like saving the 200 and moving down to perform Bronx.
Underdog play of this week — Eryk Anders ($7,600)
I would like Anders more if he wasn’t taking this fight on short notice, and if it wasn’t in Brazil. However he does have a very clear path to victory here and that is by knocking outside Santos who doesn’t have a great chin. Anders could also go for takedowns in this struggle and he could win with some tough GNP as well. At $7.6k he’ll almost surely wind up on the winning LU when he’s able to get the KO. This is the main event, so he will have 5 rounds to work with. I do think this is a solid matchup for Anders, but he has to be aggressive and not hang out on the outside. If he hangs out on the outside as long Santos will eat up him with kicks and it might be a brief night for Anders. I am going to select him to get the win here as an underdog in Brazil and I think he gets it completed in the first two rounds with a KO. This will easily pay off his $7.6k salary and it will win you a GPP if you can get your other five spots correct as well.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($9,200)
Sam Alvey is always a fade for me. I wrote him up as my fade of this week here, I was very wrong and that he scored over 100 points. Then so be it if this happens . However, I refuse to rely on an early KO triumph to pay off a 9.2k salary by a guy who doesn’t throw several strikes. At $9.2k I need at least 92 points from Alvey if I roster him and the only real way get caught that is using a 1st round KO win. That could occur here against a 42-year-old Lil Nog, but I am not willing to spend my money in it.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each struggle, my private approaches & recommendations, and also my selection prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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